Labour is predicted to overtake the Conservatives in Bath at the general election on 4 July 2024.

While Wera Hobhouse is tipped to win the seat for the third time on 4 July, the big upset is that Labour is currently polling well ahead of the Conservatives in the city. Recent polling from The Economist suggests that Labour is on 25% here and the Conservatives on just 12% (see graph). Election analysts at the Financial Times, Ipsos, Focaldata, WeThink, and electionmaps have also put Labour ahead of the Tories in Bath.

In addition, prominent tactical voting websites Get Voting (run by Best for Britain) and Stop the Tories are both recommending Bath residents vote with their heart, given there is no realistic chance of a Conservative MP in the constituency.

Bath and the wider area have seen a recent swing to Labour with the election of Labour Metro Mayor Dan Norris in 2021 and Labour Police and Crime Commissioner Clare Moody in May this year. Labour also became the official Opposition on B&NES Council in 2023, with the party now holding more than three times as many seats at the Conservatives.

Labour candidate Dan Bewley comments:  

‘For too long, Labour supporters in Bath have been told they have got to vote Lib Dem if they want to keep the Tories out. This simply isn’t true. There are no longer any elected Tories in the entire city of Bath, and Labour is now the official Opposition on B&NES council. 

‘Don’t let the Lib Dems and Tories tell you that they are the only horses in this race. With polling showing Labour beating the Tories here, and the Labour Metro Mayor and Labour Police and Crime Commissioner scoring so well in the city, there has never been a better time to vote Labour in Bath. Tactical voting is dead.’