Polling conducted by More in Common and featured in The Observer predicts that Labour’s Helen Godwin will narrowly win the West of England Mayor election on Thursday 1 May.

The electoral analysis – expected to be the last carried out before the election – puts Labour on 23%, just 2% ahead of the Conservatives and 5% of Reform. Helen Godwin is the only candidate who has polled ahead of the Tories and Nigel Farage’s party in every voter survey released during this campaign. If progressive voters in Bath and the wider West of England were to cast their ballots for parties over than the Labour then it would allow either of those right-wing parties to come through the middle and take over our region.

Labour is the current incumbent, having won the last WECA election in 2021.

The full data and methodology is available here.